Important dates:
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 7 | 4.1 | 10.8% | 50 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 6 | 5.3 | 14.2% | 66 | 0.49% |
| 20-29 | 17 | 7.0 | 17.2% | 80 | 0.38% |
| 30-39 | 11 | 6.7 | 16.3% | 76 | 0.56% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 5.3 | 12.7% | 59 | 0.56% |
| 50-59 | 11 | 4.9 | 12% | 56 | 0.45% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 3.7 | 9.5% | 44 | 0.38% |
| 70+ | 8 | 3.6 | 7.3% | 34 | 0.32% |
| All ages | 79 | 40.6 | 100% | 465 | 0.44% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 12926 | 56534 | 470 | 115 | 451 |
| Sep 05 | 12972 | 56627 | 470 | 115 | 446 |
| Sep 06 | 12999 | 56682 | 470 | 115 | 423 |
| Sep 07 | 13000 | 56714 | 470 | 115 | 383 |
| Sep 08 | 13044 | 56766 | 473 | 116 | 390 |
| Sep 09 | 13084 | 56863 | 473 | 117 | 430 |
| Sep 10 | 13163 | 56993 | 474 | 117 | 465 |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 8415 | 33151 | 349 | 102 | 327 |
| Sep 05 | 8449 | 33224 | 350 | 102 | 332 |
| Sep 06 | 8449 | 33260 | 351 | 102 | 316 |
| Sep 07 | 8461 | 33281 | 351 | 102 | 268 |
| Sep 08 | 8503 | 33320 | 351 | 102 | 310 |
| Sep 09 | 8537 | 33399 | 354 | 102 | 334 |
| Sep 10 | 8597 | 33467 | 357 | 103 | 354 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.7 | 9.3% | 33 | 0.43% |
| 10-19 | 17 | 6.6 | 21.2% | 75 | 0.89% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 4.4 | 13% | 46 | 0.65% |
| 30-39 | 10 | 5.7 | 20.1% | 71 | 0.84% |
| 40-49 | 8 | 3.6 | 10.2% | 36 | 0.46% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 2.3 | 11.3% | 40 | 0.41% |
| 60-69 | 4 | 2.3 | 6.8% | 24 | 0.29% |
| 70+ | 3 | 3.3 | 8.2% | 29 | 0.41% |
| All ages | 60 | 30.9 | 100% | 354 | 0.55% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 6374 | 22167 | 317 | 85 | 211 |
| Sep 05 | 6402 | 22209 | 317 | 85 | 222 |
| Sep 06 | 6419 | 22234 | 318 | 85 | 218 |
| Sep 07 | 6425 | 22245 | 319 | 85 | 212 |
| Sep 08 | 6443 | 22272 | 322 | 85 | 216 |
| Sep 09 | 6476 | 22317 | 326 | 85 | 238 |
| Sep 10 | 6524 | 22364 | 329 | 85 | 273 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 6 | 2.6 | 9.9% | 27 | 0.5% |
| 10-19 | 11 | 3.4 | 13.9% | 38 | 0.7% |
| 20-29 | 7 | 3.4 | 11.7% | 32 | 0.71% |
| 30-39 | 4 | 3.7 | 14.7% | 40 | 0.74% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 3.4 | 12.8% | 35 | 0.7% |
| 50-59 | 5 | 3.4 | 14.3% | 39 | 0.57% |
| 60-69 | 5 | 2.9 | 12.8% | 35 | 0.55% |
| 70+ | 3 | 2.6 | 9.9% | 27 | 0.43% |
| All ages | 48 | 25.4 | 100% | 273 | 0.6% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 13915 | 64436 | 527 | 93 | 422 |
| Sep 05 | 13978 | 64505 | 528 | 93 | 427 |
| Sep 06 | 14005 | 64555 | 530 | 94 | 386 |
| Sep 07 | 14010 | 64595 | 533 | 94 | 359 |
| Sep 08 | 14049 | 64715 | 538 | 94 | 389 |
| Sep 09 | 14089 | 64782 | 544 | 95 | 385 |
| Sep 10 | 14139 | 65041 | 559 | 98 | 412 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 5 | 4.1 | 9.5% | 39 | 0.33% |
| 10-19 | 10 | 5.4 | 17.5% | 72 | 0.43% |
| 20-29 | 9 | 6.6 | 17.5% | 72 | 0.34% |
| 30-39 | 6 | 6.6 | 17.7% | 73 | 0.54% |
| 40-49 | 10 | 4.7 | 12.6% | 52 | 0.38% |
| 50-59 | 2 | 3.6 | 10% | 41 | 0.29% |
| 60-69 | 3 | 1.9 | 5.8% | 24 | 0.17% |
| 70+ | 5 | 4.0 | 9.5% | 39 | 0.3% |
| All ages | 50 | 36.9 | 100% | 412 | 0.35% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 49550 | 386917 | 1746 | 324 | 1198 |
| Sep 05 | 49610 | 387484 | 1746 | 324 | 1143 |
| Sep 06 | 49723 | 387878 | 1749 | 324 | 1066 |
| Sep 07 | 49804 | 388088 | 1759 | 324 | 985 |
| Sep 08 | 49846 | 388408 | 1766 | 325 | 993 |
| Sep 09 | 50015 | 389321 | 1759 | 325 | 1088 |
| Sep 10 | 50123 | 389787 | 1763 | 325 | 1092 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 13 | 14.7 | 14.1% | 154 | 0.26% |
| 10-19 | 28 | 15.1 | 14.2% | 155 | 0.22% |
| 20-29 | 32 | 21.3 | 21.1% | 230 | 0.22% |
| 30-39 | 7 | 16.7 | 17.2% | 188 | 0.25% |
| 40-49 | 7 | 11.9 | 11.4% | 124 | 0.19% |
| 50-59 | 7 | 9.0 | 9.5% | 104 | 0.16% |
| 60-69 | 9 | 6.7 | 7% | 76 | 0.14% |
| 70+ | 5 | 5.4 | 5.6% | 61 | 0.12% |
| All ages | 108 | 100.9 | 100% | 1092 | 0.2% |
| DATEnew | POSITIVE | NEGATIVE | Hospitalization Yes | DEATHS | New In Last 10days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 04 | 669390 | 3177450 | 36190 | 7664 | 18049 |
| Sep 05 | 670525 | 3181661 | 36235 | 7664 | 17162 |
| Sep 06 | 671463 | 3184735 | 36284 | 7666 | 15796 |
| Sep 07 | 672272 | 3186781 | 36359 | 7667 | 14668 |
| Sep 08 | 674248 | 3190369 | 36546 | 7686 | 15821 |
| Sep 09 | 675908 | 3195553 | 36646 | 7717 | 16585 |
| Sep 10 | 678243 | 3201978 | 36782 | 7740 | 17004 |
| Age Group | Daily New Cases | Daily New Cases 7-day Average | Percent of All Active Cases | Actives (conservative estimate) | Percent of Subpopulation (conservative) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-9 | 286 | 188.1 | 11.9% | 2024 | 0.32% |
| 10-19 | 441 | 264.7 | 16.3% | 2772 | 0.37% |
| 20-29 | 378 | 236.7 | 16.1% | 2732 | 0.36% |
| 30-39 | 341 | 240.1 | 15.6% | 2651 | 0.35% |
| 40-49 | 313 | 194.4 | 12.8% | 2174 | 0.31% |
| 50-59 | 235 | 163.6 | 11.1% | 1882 | 0.23% |
| 60-69 | 178 | 133.6 | 8.7% | 1478 | 0.2% |
| 70+ | 163 | 119.9 | 7.6% | 1291 | 0.2% |
| All ages | 2335 | 1541.1 | 100% | 17004 | 0.29% |
Estimated recovery time from health experts varies between 10-20 days, with a nontrivial proportion of cases being long-term / on-going:
Various 7-day average trends
Comment: Why a 7-day moving average? Wisconsin tends to have cyclical patterns in testing results, with low spots typically on Mondays (this may be due to lower testing on weekends)
Source: Minnesota’s safe learning plan is very direct, very precise, with scientific basis. Determined on a local level.
Definitions (corresponding / similar to MN plan):
and a set of SUGGESTED GUIDELINES based on the Minnesota reference:
| Criteria 2wk | Criteria 2wk20s | Criteria daily7 | Suggestion |
|---|---|---|---|
| > 25 | > 30 | – | urge extra caution |
| > 28 | > 45* | decreasing | consider staying home and watching class recordings (rather than attending in-person) and visit online OH |
| > 28 | > 45* | steady to increasing | strongly encouraged to stay home and watch class recordings (attend in-person only as absolutely needed) and visit online OH. |
| > 30 | > 50 | decreasing | ’’ ’’ ’’ |
| > 30 | > 50 | steady to increasing | based on the cited criteria from Minnesota, safety of in-person classes no longer seems supportable |
*adjusted to reflect a corresponding proportion of the top cut-off.
Important Resources:
I devised plots that are similar to those found, for example, at the following locations:
Masks Should I wear a mask in enclosed public spaces? Unequivocally, YES. References for reasoning, using a current (as of July 8) accumulation of over 70 references. A few of my favorites (modeling-wise) are:
A couple more in the works:
Media articles / letters summarizing scientific publications:
Predicting cumulative deaths in state
[1] "The number of cumulative deaths, at a lag of 21 days, are approximately 0.6 times number of cumulative cases to the 0.7 power."
[1] "We thus predict that on 2021-10-02 the cumulative number of deaths in WI will be 7208"
Comparing county-wide active case rates in counties with colleges